Our Real Opposition

It is now becoming more apparent, every day, that the next General Election will be, at least, a very close contest. The positioning of the party by Cameron et al is proving successful. I'm not entirely convinced that the floating voter sits in the 'centre-ground' (I think it is a mythical position, designed to make all of the right wing seem extreme) but am happy to acknowledge that the perception is still prevalent. The polls are getting better everyday but we all know that polls don't correlate directly to votes, which don't correlate directly to seats!

Pride in our Principles

The present leadership seem to be shifting some emphasis back to our traditional ground, which we grass-root supporters should welcome. Sound, pro-liberty, pro-capitalist policies are the bedrock of a happy, prosperous society and have been much neglected over the last decade. We should never be ashamed nor embarrassed of our heritage: the country wouldn't be half as affluent, developed or autonomous if we hadn't have fought so hard for our country. We should also acknowledge that we are now distancing from the present Labour Government, which is beginning to appear much more left wing, insular and power-hungry.

The present Labour government has benefited tremendously from the tough reforms the Conservatives implemented. The idea that a left wing government could, albeit without justification, base their reputation on their economic competence is a compliment to our policies and principles . They have successfully attracted some voters by masquerading as moderate, Tory-lite politicians and still managed to keep hold of their core vote. New Labour wasted our heritage, so much so that voters have already turned their backs on them and we should benefit again at the next election, with the usual swing of voter from government to opposition . But let's not get complacent. We need to develop a far better long-term strategy on how we form the next Government and that must be based locally.

Labour's Vote

Labour's share of the vote and, most importantly, support amongst the entire electorate in all three of the last elections has been unimpressive. The 'landslide' in 1997 was down to a Tory vote collapse (we lost roughly 4.5 million votes, Labour gained 2 million) not a mass exodus to Labour; more people opted not to vote than voted for the Labour. The turnout has declined every year since since we won the 1992 election with highest number of votes ever recorded (pre 2001, 2005.) Labour were also heavily aided by tactical voting of Lib Dems, which has declined over the last two elections. However, these are the bare statistical facts, not the reasons.

It is my contention that we allow the battle between Labour and Conservative to remain in the media, influencing the general mood of the nation and encouraging the 'natural conservative voters' to come back to the party. As activists and supporters, we need to focus on local opposition and local issues.

Fringe Parties

A small rise in votes for fringe parties should be acknowledged but cast aside as an irrelevance. However distasteful we find the BNP, they are still delivering a message which some people find attractive. The likelihood of converting a supporter of the BNP (a racist, bigoted, protectionist party) to the Conservative Party is not only unlikely but also utterly undesirable, reversing the detoxification accomplished by Cameron et al. The best response we can deliver is to starve them of the oxygen of publicity and deliver a separate, positive message about the topics they appeal to voters on.
Many Thatcherite Tories will be attracted to UKIP, who are essentially conservative but are pressing a single issue. The Conservative Party's stance on Europe should attract some UKIP supporters back, particularly if we appeal to them as a vote against Brown and his support for the-definitely-not-the-constitution-treaty.

The Real Opposition

We need to aggressively target Liberal Democrat voters. My neighbouring constituency, Watford, where Ian Oakley is standing, is a three-way marginal. Those voters committed to voting Labour probably won't be converted but we have a significant chance with the Lib Dem voters. The Ming reign, which has shown over the last two years how entirely ineffectual the Lib Dems can be, should be exploited as a weakness. Whoever takes on the leadership of the Lib Dems will have some impact but let us hope they stay true to form and elect the wrong leader: I think Chris Huhne is our preferable option.

I've agreed with my MP that I can ease off campaigning in my constituency to ensure we have a chance of capitalising on the present weaknesses of the Lib Dems leadership: we are now positioned to to gain those crucial 116 seats, taking seats from both parties. I genuinely believe we should become much savvier in counter-attacking the Lib Dems at a local level, deflecting their negative campaigns and taking the fight to them. If you live in a constituency that has a strong Lib Dem association you will know how vicious and far more effective than the Labour machine they can be.

Let's start to show some local nous as well as national: the left isn't the opposition, the woolly middle-grounders are.